Important Global Indicators

Click on the pic.
This data has been taken from 'The Economist' magazine website:
http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/

My analysis of the Data:
US has the biggest Current Account deficit of 856 Billion USD which is 5.9% of GDP. There has been a consensus among economists that for any country deficit of more than 5% of GDP is bad. India has a relatively better current account position and if we remove the crude impact from it, we are better placed today than a decade ago.

If we see budget deficits, Japan (-4.9% of GDP) seems to be in pretty bad shape. Thanks to its budget deficit, Japan could face higher inflation. To curb higher inflation Bank of Japan will raise rates further which would ultimately stop the “Yen carry trade” which has been inflating global asset prices in preceding 3 years. So, asset prices could cool down going forward.

Another important observation can be made in the interest rates column. Generally inverted yield curve indicates a possible slowdown/recession in the economy. Inverted yield curve means short term yield (3-month) is higher than long term yields (10-year bonds above). US, Britain, Russia, Australia, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt and South Africa are having inverted yield curves indicating that these countries could face a slowdown/recession.

Currency Farce

There are as many currencies floating in the world as there are countries. Why do we need so many currencies. Why is there a big market to trade in currencies? What are currencies? All these are questions that may spring up to any intelligent being who is trying to understand why a piece of paper with green ink and white house on it has more value than the locally printed paper given to him by his government.

It has been going on since the world became colonised and currency was introduced in economy. In olden times people would trade in equal valued services and products. For e.g. rice produced by farmer is of less value to him than to a cobbler who makes shoes and cares less for shoes. Farmer thus has an economical need to trade his belonging in equal value with cobbler. Cobbler rates a pair of shoes to 10 lbs of rice. farmer equally values it and hence the trade happens. This is fair trade. However in current world scenario we dont do this. We trade paper which has denominated value. Also this paper has various denominated values against another paper. And some people trade in just paper. Creating a "False Value".

I strongly suggest that we have single trading unit. No currencies. Central trade organisation like WTO based on current assets, services, GDP creates something like Global Trade Unit (GTU). The main problem arises is how do we treat PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). For e.g. INR is very strong in PPP as compared to many currencies however GDP of India is low. If we arrive at a central currency we will see inflation sky rocketing in some parts of the world with now excellent PPP but low GDP. Per capita incomes will be distorted as well. The concept is as wild as saying 1 Dollar = 1 Rupee. No not really. This is not how a Global Trade Unit (GTU) will work. GTU is index linked to assets. We can have it region based, country based, intercountry based, intra country based. Depending on the current market value the GTU reserves would be deposited with the country. Countries have to manage GTU. There is no way of having "False Value" (FV) or Notional Value (NV). Trade is thus asset linked more and less paper oriented.

Now many countries have Dollar Reserves. International trade is dollar based. If US wants services or imports its more than willing to print a few more dollars and sell it to any willing economy lacking them. How legal is this? You got True Value in return of False Value. Earlier currencies were linked to gold reserves internatinally. But with the concept of "Global Village" emerging it could no longer be sustained and the this mandate was revoked. Now countries can print their currencies as they please based on their own economic agenda. Zimbabwe is best example or crisis in argentina when the Argentinian dollar pegged to USD was released. The country went into an economic tumble. The countries that control media and have a global image will always remain strong as they are able to project higher value for their currency than other countries.

Yes the balances will tilt only when all countries have sufficient dollars and they realise that they are sitting on paper piles all this while. Where do we take all this trillions of paper bills floating around burn them? or fill our graves?

Scarcest resource? - Land!

Land - Wars were fought for it, lives were lost for it. It was a scarce resource then, it is a scarce resource today.

By “Land” I don’t mean just any piece of land. Land that can give you a return is a resource and this is the Land I am talking about.

I am talking about agricultural land. Today globalisation has changed the perception of countries to agriculture. It is considered to be a weakness in your bargaining power for manufactured goods and services. And that is the precise reason why countries like India and China are shifting their economic model from being an agricultural economy to service and manufacturing economy. But my feeling is we are headed in the wrong direction.

Agricultural land in these economies is fast reducing for reasons which explicitly apply to these countries.
Let’s first take India. India has been losing agricultural land due to urbanisation. This is natural in any country that is growing. But other than urbanisation the other main reason is rise in the land prices. Land prices in India, agricultural or not, have risen substantially in the last 3 years. What is the problem if land prices go up? Well! The issue is when land prices go up it is much more remunerative for a farmer to sell his land and live a lavish lifestyle rather than working in the scorching sun for hours and in return get non-remunerative prices for his produce. This is what is happening in areas around growing cities like Gurgaon, Noida and Pune. Another major reason for loss of agricultural land is the growing prosperity of the Indian middle class. Today’s rich Indian middle class has started acquiring land in villages. This land is typically kept vacant or is being used for constructing a “Farm house”. Agricultural land is being used for non-agricultural reasons. So it shouldn’t be a surprise that agriculture in India is growing at a mere 2%. To add to the problem state governments like that of West Bengal have been acquiring land from farmers who are unwilling to sell, to set-up industry. Farmers in Bengal are unwilling to sell because land there is cheap. Thus price of land has a big impact on area under agriculture.

China too faces the urbanisation issue. But this problem could aggravate. In communist China, land is owned by the state. But in March 2007 a bill was introduced which (if passed) would give legal protection to individuals for their property (In other words private property). This would have a big impact on area under agriculture. Why? China has been a communist country since the 60’s and for decades not a single person has got any property rights. Therefore there is a huge pent-up demand that would suddenly be freed from constraints. Land prices will shoot up. Chinese middle class will start constructing “Farm houses”. A story similar to India will be repeated.

Then there are other issues like global warming which reduce the productivity of land. But before dealing with global warming which would require global corroboration, it would be advisable to deal with local land issues by introducing land reforms.

Wise men like Jim Rogers have already betted big on Agro-commodities and I concur to their thought process. Agro-commodity prices have risen substantially in the last 3 years and I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t go up further. Going forward food security is a matter of concern, especially for India and China and dealing with it would be the most prudent thing to do.

Wonder Blunder

India lacks innovation. Does this come as a rude shock to you. You must have read numerous articles about how proud you should be as an Indian as India has a very rich history of innovation. The number system was developed in India, Astronomical treatise like Surya Siddhanta was comprised in India, great thinkers, academicians, philosophers, mathematicians were part of acient India. World renowned universities belonged in India. All this 'WAS' and not 'IS' is the sad part.

Looking back over the past century we see India going through a lot of change. We were born from a century and half of slavery in colonial India. Our young nation was now handed the strings of managing its own affairs. Our leaders belonging to the colonial era had developed strong social values which they put ahead of everything else, monetary gains were frowned upon as if being evil. Gandhisim dominated. India was land of poor and we needed to elivate the poor, that was the prime goal. Public Sector Industry was encouraged. Infact it was the norm of the day that government should run industry to ensure that all is fair in new India.

With such positive values where do you think we went wrong. After more than 50 years of independance we still are faced with 70% poverty (or even more), 40% illetracy and many other social evils with population being the biggest. We still need time is the general argument, but are we moving ahead in the right direction. Yes comes the prompt answer, we now have good metropolitan cities, more jobs, a greater and stronger middle class, a powerful army, more than half a billion population under the age of 25, IT out-sourcing industry and positive world opinion. We have to achieve a lot but we will, give us time.

Yes true, we have the potential to be everything a super power needs to be, but we have our own set of challenges. Education and Infrastructure are the crucial pillars of modern society and currently India lacks both. Indian universities have the capability to provide all this, but we do lose most of our great minds to west for it is but human to strive for a better standard of living. India till now focused more on the poor of the country and now suddenly the focus has shifted to the middle and upper classes. We need to give back something to the tax payers after all. Now every year we get to see a good representation for the middle class in the country's budget where it was mostly ignored for the past 50 years or so.

India needs innovation and not immitation. This decade has seen a lot of multinational giants like pfizer, IBM, Intel trying to open R&D shops in India. They say India has the brain we need to tap it. I believe Indian strategy should be encourage more of research oriented outsourcing to the general outsourcing. This will attract all the intelligent minds back to the sub-continent. And great minds is what shapes the society. India needs young dynamic leaders who have a vision for future. Yes we need a CEO for our country, who sees the country as a big organization and plans and acts accordingly. We should organize ourselves as a industry and market and project our glabal image accordingly.

We have seen some development happening in this area as well, we now have a minority of young Indians prefering to stay back in India and work in diverse fields like education, agriculture, horticulture, microfinancing, NGOs and defence. The Indian mindset will need to change, now the youth are given a strict guideline from their parents. Indian parents and students alike believe that the way to individual glory is IIT-IIM-MNC. Social sciences and other relevant facts are mastered only to achieve this goal. We need people to think not be mechanical. Inspiration is the mother of Innovation. Inspire others to aspire, and we will not be feeding on second morsels.

lndia a low-salary, low-cost markets...till what date??

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Euro_techies_turn_to_India_for_work_experience/articleshow/1782150.cms

If you look at the above article, it says that India is a major outsourcing destination; Indian market is good for investment. Therefore, it is true that India has good talent indeed! This kind of an article is more common these days.
It is almost a decade or even more that we are running in the global race, but to date we are promoted as low-salary, low-cost markets. This has been like a tag line for a while now. I do not have any problem with low cost markets, they do get us some good business…my concern is low salary. This tag line clearly indicates that we are good at things but are not paid equally well. Will this tag line ever change?
You may answer that … This whole process of transforming India into a global economy is gaining momentum and will need its time to be a global giant...I agree to all of that.
However, we do lack something don’t we?
My question is that what do we lack to be the best paid economy in the world? Comment plz..

How serious is the sub-prime mortgage problem?

Almost every think tank in the US is confident that the ‘sub-prime lending’ issue will not have any negative repercussions on the financial sector and the economy as a whole. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is the only person who thinks there is something more than meets the eye. And this time I would tend to agree with Mr. Greenspan.

The first signs of the problem were sighted when HSBC declared in February that it was holding bad debts amounting to 10.6 Billion $ and that it was expecting further losses in the current year. This news was taken very lightly. Then other sub-prime lenders like New Century came forward with their version of the bad news. Suddenly the sub-prime story caught everyone’s eye. But as time has passed the fears about sub-prime lending have been subdued.

Sub-prime lending amounts to 20% of the mortgage market in the US. The sub-prime lenders are only intermediaries i.e. they borrow from banks and other financial institutions and lend to sub-prime borrowers at high interest rates. Majority of these lending’s have been securitized and sold to investors. To protect the investors the lenders have opted for credit default insurance as well as got their feet into the credit derivatives market.

Majority of the analysts are looking at the lender in isolation, when in reality he has his hands tied. So this fiasco is not restricted to the sub-prime lender but to whole host of other individuals and corporates. And the ripple effects of this issue will be seen in future consumer confidence numbers.

India budget focuses on farming

India's government has unveiled its annual budget, saying agriculture "must top the agenda of policy-makers".

The finance minister said unless India could be self-sufficient in food, this could upset "macro-economic growth stability and growth prospects".

The governing Congress party also said high growth would be critical as a way to fight widespread poverty.

However, the government said that economic growth, at 8.6% in the third quarter, had also pushed inflation up.

Inflation

Analysts greeted the government's 6.81 trillion rupee (£78bn; $153bn) budget positively.

"The good part is that the budget is not anti-inflationary," said Rashesh Shah, chief executive of Edelweiss Capital.

However, Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said the government still had concerns over inflation.

While India had already taken "a number of measures on the fiscal, monetary and supply sides to maintain price stability", it would take more measures if needed.

Broadly, it is a growth-oriented budget, with focus on agriculture and education
A. Balasubramaniam, Birla Sun Life Asset Management

There had been fears that anti-inflation measures could limit growth in Asia's fourth-largest economy.

Figures for February revealed that wholesale price inflation had reached nearly 7%, following higher food and consumer goods prices.

Equity and growth

In a bid to boost India's agriculture - which grew by 2.3% on average in the last three years, against a target of 4% - the government said that it would offer cheaper credit to more farmers.

Some two thirds of Indians make a living from agriculture.

Mr Chidambaram said five million farmers would be "brought into the banking system" in the present fiscal year and the rural job guarantee scheme would be expanded.

According to analysts, a lack of adequate, affordable credit has prompted a wave of suicides amongst farmers across rural India.

Mr Chidambaram said: "Revenues were buoyant for the third year in succession. I have put the revenues to good use to promote inclusive growth, equity and social justice."

'Business momentum'

A Balasubramaniam, chief investment officer at Birla Sun Life Asset Management in Mumbai, said: "From the corporate angle, reduction in excise duties in relevant sectors are positive."

We must remember the finance minister has not derailed business momentum
Stockbroker Sushil Choksey

But the increase in excise duty on cement was "a punishment for the sector", he said. The budget also included higher taxes for telecoms firms.

India's main stock market fell 4% after the budget was unveiled amid concerns about plans for higher taxes on dividends and the removal of tax exemptions from technology firms.

Stockbroker Sushil Choksey said: "The fall is a knee-jerk reaction of Indian markets, but we must remember the finance minister has not derailed business momentum."

"This is a short-term view taken by investors and I expect this fall to taper off in a day or two."

Overheat

Mr Balasubramaniam said the budget was broadly "growth-oriented", with focus on agriculture and education.

Finance Minister Mr Chidambaram said spending on education would be increased by 34.2% in the coming fiscal year, while health and family welfare spending would rise by 21.9%.

Other aspects of the budget included increasing defence spending by some 7.8% to March 2008, as India strives to update its military capabilities.

Mr Chidambaram said the defence budget had risen to 960 billion rupees ($21.8 billion) from 890 billion a year before.

Other figures released on Wednesday showed the manufacturing sector at a rate of 10.7% in the quarter, although farming expanded by a lower-than-expected 1.5% because of crop shortages.

Analysts have raised concerns that India's economy could overheat, with growth running at about 9%.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/business/6403139.stm

Published: 2007/02/28 10:17:48 GMT

© BBC MMVII

Israel, Iran top 'negative list'

By Nick Childs
BBC world affairs correspondent

A majority of people believe that Israel and Iran have a mainly negative influence in the world, a poll for the BBC World Service suggests.

It shows that the two countries are closely followed by the United States and North Korea.

The poll asked 28,000 people in 27 countries to rate a dozen countries plus the EU in terms of whether they have a positive or negative influence.

Canada, Japan and the EU are viewed most positively in the survey.

'Traditional divides'

In January, the BBC World Service revealed polling results that suggested most people think the US has a mainly negative influence in the world - and that the numbers had increased significantly in the last couple of years.

This latest GlobeScan survey, mostly of the same people, confirms those findings.

But it also suggests that two countries are viewed even more negatively - first Israel, and then Iran.

North Korea is just behind the US.

BBC WORLD SERVICE POLL

Most negative image:

1. Israel - 56%

2. Iran - 56%

3. US - 51%

4. North Korea - 48%

Israel, of course, has long provoked sharp international reactions, and last year was involved in a controversial war in Lebanon.

Iran and North Korea have both been at the centre of international disputes over their nuclear programmes.

Canada, Japan, and the EU are viewed most positively, perhaps because they have all taken less high-profile roles in the world's recent confrontations.

India is one country in the survey that seems to have improved its standing in the last year.

In general, opinion seems to divide along the traditional fault lines of international politics.

Israel is viewed most negatively in the Muslim countries of the Middle East, although also in Europe.

Iran is viewed most positively in the Muslim world.

Japan is generally viewed positively, except in China and South Korea.

The EU similarly gets good marks, except most notably in Turkey, and also in parts of the Middle East.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/6421597.stm

Published: 2007/03/06 01:41:35 GMT

© BBC MMVII

Economics Unbound - BusinessWeek Online

Economics Unbound - BusinessWeek Online

The first post

Good Morning, Good Afternoon, Good Evening, Good Night..considering the time zone in which you are reading this blog. Well this is my first post and my first attempt at writing a blog. I am certain that ill improve over time but i am sure i am doing quiet fine to begin with.

This first post wont be dealing with anything in particular, just a first post. The first post also demands to be the introductory post to the future posts that will follow. Its certainly not the parent but nonetheless should tell something about its next generations. Its certainly not the last post and so doesnt provide conclusions of any kind but also doesnt provide the begining to any future posts. Wondering what the first post is all about?

First posts are always like this, i am sure, unstructured, adhoc, unplanned, nervous, confused and sometimes boastful and ambitious. They have a unique quality of uniqueness and no two first posts will ever be the same. Some authors certainly begin with their introductions and what will follow in their respective blogs but thats not the intention of the first post. First post always wants to tell a story of its own but is always used as an instrument by the author to tell his/her own.
All the other posts would have the merit for comment but the first post is mostly ignored. It is raw and nascent, its like an infant that has just shit in its pants and no one wants to pick it up though everyone adores it from afar.

Now i have caressed enough the ego of my first post and i wouldnt want to linger there any longer. My grammar always begins with active and ends in passive and may complicate reading so i am cautioning my readers. But its very simple to understand, read straight and dont think.

- Jatin