Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Important Global Indicators

Click on the pic.
This data has been taken from 'The Economist' magazine website:
http://www.economist.com/markets/indicators/


My analysis of the Data:
US has the biggest Current Account deficit of 856 Billion USD which is 5.9% of GDP. There has been a consensus among economists that for any country deficit of more than 5% of GDP is bad. India has a relatively better current account position and if we remove the crude impact from it, we are better placed today than a decade ago.

If we see budget deficits, Japan (-4.9% of GDP) seems to be in pretty bad shape. Thanks to its budget deficit, Japan could face higher inflation. To curb higher inflation Bank of Japan will raise rates further which would ultimately stop the “Yen carry trade” which has been inflating global asset prices in preceding 3 years. So, asset prices could cool down going forward.

Another important observation can be made in the interest rates column. Generally inverted yield curve indicates a possible slowdown/recession in the economy. Inverted yield curve means short term yield (3-month) is higher than long term yields (10-year bonds above). US, Britain, Russia, Australia, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt and South Africa are having inverted yield curves indicating that these countries could face a slowdown/recession.

No comments: